| 21-April-2009
Brazil Economic Scan
In this edition: Brazil's finance minister says economy
will return to growth in Q4, Brazil central bank sees signs of
recovery, ING says Brazillian firms well placed to ride out downturn,
Esteves' BTG investments buys Pactual from UBS, Brazillian stocks
drop.
Top headlines
Brazil's
Finance Min Says Economy To Grow 3% To 4% In 4Q 2009
- Brazil's economy will recover gradually over coming months to
post growth of 3-4% in the fourth quarter of this year, Finance
Minister Guido Mantega said Wednesday. He also noted that the
country would likely be able to avoid a recession and net job
losses in 2009.
- "I would say that the economy, in March and April, has
already shown signs of some recovery," he said. "That
doesn't mean that the crisis has ended, but the most severe phase
has been left behind."
Brazil
c.bank sees "encouraging signs" of recovery
- Central Bank President Henrique Meirelles said that Brazil's
economy has reacted well to recent government measures to increase
liquidity in the banking system and to improve sales in key
industrial sectors e.g. prelim data for April show auto sector
sales growing faster than March.
- The banks have raised about 3 billion reais ($1.37 billion), or
an average 300 million reais a day, in certificates of deposit
since the government said it would offer guarantees to small
financial firms in a bid to increase lending, he said.
Brazil
firms well placed to ride out downturn -ING
- Brazil has been less impacted by the global financial crisis and
serves as a "kind of safe-haven for investors," said ING
analyst Diego Torres in a research report.
- Among the companies mentioned by ING were electricity utility
Cesp,
the Brazilian unit of Colombian firm ISA,
and media conglomerate Globo. Brazil's benchmark stock index, the
Bovespa, has gained about 20 percent since the start of the year.
Esteves
Plans More Acquisitions in ‘Ambitious’ Global Expansion
- Andre Esteves' BTG investments has agreed to buy UBS Pactual,
the Brazilian arm of UBS, from the Swiss bank UBS for $2.5
billion; in a deal that will boost BTG’s asset under management
to about $27 billion, from $1.5 billion.
- “We want to consolidate Pactual as a leading investment bank
in Brazil,” Said Esteves; there’s a plan for “ambitious
international expansion.”
Bovespa
Falls Most in 3 Weeks on Commodity Drop; Bolsa Retreats
- The Bovespa index declined 2.9% to 44,433.15, the lowest level
since April 8. The measure on April 17 capped a six-week advance
that pushed its PE ratio to a nine-month high of 14.7, or 31% more
expensive than the five-year average. Brazil analysts forecast the
economy will contract 0.49% this year; versus the 0.3% average of
the previous week’s central bank survey of about 100 economists.
- Petrobras dropped -2.4% to 28.80 reais; Cia. Vale do Rio Doce,
-2.3% to 29.13 reais; Cia.
Siderurgica Nacional SA, -4.4% to 38.50 reais; Itau -3.6% to
27.28 reais; Banco
Bradesco SA -4.2% to 25.10 reais; Gafisa, -5.9% to 14.15 reais.
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